Insights
Research, portfolio reports and market commentary across global equities, the energy transition, AI infrastructure and macro positioning.
AI RACE: CHINA VS USA
A strategic assessment of the global AI race, with a focus on compute, semiconductors, power demand, grid constraints and the investment implications across the physical AI infrastructure stack.
Charter House Rules
Emit Capital's podcast on markets, macro and the physical build-out behind AI and the energy transition. Named for Charter House, our home in Melbourne. Open to all listeners.
A Falling Risk Premium Is Not Falling Risk
The inaugural episode: oil back below US$100, an AI-led Nasdaq making new highs, central banks still tightening, and the question underneath all of it — whether compressed volatility means risk has gone away, or simply that it is being priced somewhere else.
Market Risk Notes
Tactical cross-asset risk assessments covering macro conditions, volatility, dealer positioning, credit and the implications for Emit Capital portfolios. The most recent note appears first; earlier notes reflect conditions at the time of writing and have not been updated.
The shock absorber is gone. We are moving a stage
Dealer positioning collapsed on Monday: S&P gamma fell 98% and both major ETFs turned negative, leaving spot below the gamma flip on each index. Credit widened to 293bp, inside the band we had published as decisive, and the 10-year reached 5.243%. We move from stage two to stage three of our risk framework — a controlled de-rating driven by the cost of capital, not disorder.
Oil did the work, not the bond market
Equities rose, breadth turned positive and every options structure we track is back in positive gamma, the strongest positioning of the month. The bond market did not relent — the 30-year made a new high at 5.502% — but Brent fell 2%, easing the inflation channel behind the pressure. One caution: high-yield spreads widened to 280bp, the top of our contained band.
The macro got worse. The market did not
The 10-year reached 5.20%, the 30-year 5.48% and Brent rose more than 4%, yet the S&P and Nasdaq finished unchanged and VIX stayed below 16. Dealer positioning improved into the close and the high-yield spread printed at 273bp, inside the band we had published as the test for whether this remains a valuation event rather than a financing one.
The 10-year broke 5.10%, and the cushion beneath equities thinned
Yields rose across the curve, oil returned above US$103 and equities fell. The dealer positioning that had been damping moves largely went with it: the S&P ETF turned negative and all three major structures now sit within 0.35% of their gamma boundary. Frontier compute economics are unchanged, so we read this as valuation pressure rather than a demand problem.
A calm index, a market pulling apart underneath it
VIX fell to 14.21 while dispersion rose for a fifth session, the widest gap between index and single-stock volatility of this episode. The Nasdaq made a 52-week high on a flat S&P and a falling Dow, with the major indices now sitting just below their call walls ahead of a US–China summit.
Positive gamma everywhere, but the rally beneath it is narrow
The first post-expiry reading put all four major options structures back into positive gamma, with oil easing, the 10-year below 5% and credit very calm. The advance was concentrated: the Nasdaq outpaced the equal-weighted S&P by 2.65 percentage points in a single session.
The index is calm. Beneath it, the market is narrowing
VIX fell again and the Nasdaq rose while the Dow and the equal-weighted S&P fell and the 10-year returned to 5%. Positioning figures were provisional ahead of one of the largest quarterly expiries on record. This note introduced our AI compute fundamentals overlay.
The index risk has gone. The stock-specific risk has not
Yields fell, oil eased, credit tightened and every equity gamma structure we track flipped positive, with VIX down 12.8%. Dispersion rose even so: total implied equity volatility was almost unchanged, with its composition shifting out of the index and into individual stocks.
Structure repairs while the macro backdrop stays hostile
Dealer positioning improved across the major structures and volatility compressed, but yields and oil kept the macro configuration difficult. A constructive shift in mechanics against an unchanged rates problem.
Concentrated technology risk, not broad equity stress
Semiconductors and AI-linked equities absorbed the bulk of the repricing while breadth outside technology and credit markets held. The distinction between a sector repricing and a systemic event remained intact.
The AI complex has lost its structural protection
Monday's index decline was modest, but semiconductors fell almost 5% and every major equity gamma structure turned negative with the US 10-year reaching 5%. Breadth outside technology and credit both held, so this reads as a concentrated repricing of AI duration risk rather than broad equity stress.
Equity resilience now has to survive a fresh oil shock
A weekend update following the reported shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. US equity market structure repaired on Friday, but the oil and rates shock has worsened, leaving the near-term distribution negatively asymmetric into the Federal Reserve decision.
Macro pressure is rising, but credit has not broken
A tactical assessment of rising rates, oil, volatility and negative gamma, with credit markets still signalling an orderly rather than systemic risk regime.
Monthly Reports – Aug 2026
The latest monthly portfolio updates across Emit Capital's regional, thematic and flagship strategies.
North America SMA Performance Report – Aug '26
Monthly portfolio update covering performance, attribution, holdings and key developments across North American exposures.
Global Opportunities Portfolio Report – Aug '26
Portfolio commentary and positioning update for Emit Capital's flagship global strategy across regional and thematic exposures.
AI-Infrastructure SMA Performance Report – Aug '26
Performance and positioning update focused on AI infrastructure, compute, data centres, networking and digital backbone providers.
Europe / UK SMA Performance Report – Aug '26
Regional performance update covering holdings, attribution and key industrial and electrification themes in Europe and the UK.
Asia-Pac / Japan SMA Performance Report – Aug '26
Portfolio update across Asia-Pacific and Japan, including strategic themes, holdings review and current market positioning.
Monthly Reports – Jul 2026
Archived July 2026 monthly portfolio reports and updates across Emit Capital's investment strategies.
North America SMA Performance Report – Jul '26
Monthly portfolio update covering performance, attribution, holdings and key developments across North American exposures.
Global Opportunities Portfolio Report – Jul '26
Portfolio commentary and positioning update for Emit Capital's flagship global strategy across regional and thematic exposures.
AI-Infrastructure SMA Performance Report – Jul '26
Performance and positioning update focused on AI infrastructure, compute, data centres, networking and digital backbone providers.
Europe / UK SMA Performance Report – Jul '26
Regional performance update covering holdings, attribution and key industrial and electrification themes in Europe and the UK.
Asia-Pac / Japan SMA Performance Report – Jul '26
Portfolio update across Asia-Pacific and Japan, including strategic themes, holdings review and current market positioning.
Monthly Reports – Jun 2026
Archived June 2026 monthly portfolio reports and updates across Emit Capital's investment strategies.
North America SMA Performance Report – Jun '26
Monthly portfolio update covering performance, attribution, holdings and key developments across North American exposures.
Global Opportunities Portfolio Report – Jun '26
Portfolio commentary and positioning update for Emit Capital's flagship global strategy across regional and thematic exposures.
AI-Infrastructure SMA Performance Report – Jun '26
Performance and positioning update focused on AI infrastructure, compute, data centres, networking and digital backbone providers.
Europe / UK SMA Performance Report – Jun '26
Regional performance update covering holdings, attribution and key industrial and electrification themes in Europe and the UK.
Asia-Pac / Japan SMA Performance Report – Jun '26
Portfolio update across Asia-Pacific and Japan, including strategic themes, holdings review and current market positioning.
Monthly Reports – May 2026
Archived May 2026 monthly portfolio reports and updates across Emit Capital's investment strategies.
North America SMA Performance Report – May '26
Monthly portfolio update covering performance, attribution, holdings and key developments across North American exposures.
Global Opportunities Portfolio Report – May '26
Portfolio commentary and positioning update for Emit Capital's flagship global strategy across regional and thematic exposures.
AI-Infrastructure SMA Performance Report – May '26
Performance and positioning update focused on AI infrastructure, compute, data centres, networking and digital backbone providers.
Europe / UK SMA Performance Report – May '26
Regional performance update covering holdings, attribution and key industrial and electrification themes in Europe and the UK.
Asia-Pac / Japan SMA Performance Report – May '26
Portfolio update across Asia-Pacific and Japan, including strategic themes, holdings review and current market positioning.
Monthly Reports – Apr 2026
Archived April 2026 monthly portfolio reports and updates across Emit Capital's investment strategies.
North America SMA Performance Report – Apr '26
Monthly portfolio update covering performance, attribution, holdings and key developments across North American exposures.
Global Opportunities Portfolio Report – Apr '26
Portfolio commentary and positioning update for Emit Capital's flagship global strategy across regional and thematic exposures.
AI-Infrastructure SMA Performance Report – Apr '26
Performance and positioning update focused on AI infrastructure, compute, data centres, networking and digital backbone providers.
Europe / UK SMA Performance Report – Apr '26
Regional performance update covering holdings, attribution and key industrial and electrification themes in Europe and the UK.
Asia-Pac / Japan SMA Performance Report – Apr '26
Portfolio update across Asia-Pacific and Japan, including strategic themes, holdings review and current market positioning.
Quarterly Reports
Archived quarterly portfolio reports and updates across Emit Capital's investment strategies.
North America SMA Performance Report – Q1 2026
Quarterly portfolio update covering performance, attribution, holdings and key developments across North American exposures.
Global Opportunities Portfolio Report – Q1 2026
Portfolio commentary and positioning update for Emit Capital's flagship global strategy across regional and thematic exposures.
AI-Infrastructure SMA Performance Report – Q1 2026
Performance and positioning update focused on AI infrastructure, compute, data centres, networking and digital backbone providers.
Europe / UK SMA Performance Report – Q1 2026
Regional performance update covering holdings, attribution and key industrial and electrification themes in Europe and the UK.
Asia-Pac / Japan SMA Performance Report – Q1 2026
Portfolio update across Asia-Pacific and Japan, including strategic themes, holdings review and current market positioning.
Presentations, Video & Insights
Additional thematic research, presentations and media content from Emit Capital.
AI Infrastructure Super-Cycle Presentation
Thematic presentation covering semiconductors, compute, power, data centres and the physical infrastructure enabling AI scale.
Emit Capital on Ausbiz
Video discussion covering market developments, portfolio positioning and structural trends across the energy transition and AI infrastructure.
The Bond Market Is Whispering Something Beyond Inflation
A forward-looking assessment of macro signals, liquidity conditions and second-order impacts across AI infrastructure and energy markets.
eVTOL Revolution: Flying Toward a Sustainable Future
Commentary on cross-asset market moves, macro risks and the implications for portfolio construction and active risk management.
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